And while we think the interplay between the good (lower rates) and bad (higher term premium) will persist throughout the rest of the year, given the still resilient economic conditions, we think rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, could drift higher in the near term before ending the year between 4.0% to 4.5%.

If “tariff” isn’t the word of the year for stock investors so far, then perhaps it’s “uncertainty.” Uncertainty around trade policy dominated the path of the stock market in the first half and will continue to play a large role in the second half.

With investor focus now squarely back on U.S. equities as new all-time highs are in sight, we dig into why strategic allocations should still consider, despite recent outperformance and multiple expansion, diversification into international equities.

Chinese equities have been a major focus for investors in recent months, with catalysts ranging from DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence (AI) advancements to tariffs and trade negotiations.

Inflation’s effects on the economy, monetary policy, and the financial markets are wide-ranging. Higher inflation can constrain economic growth, tighten financial conditions, drive interest rates higher and even restrain stock valuations — higher inflation dampens the present value of future earnings and, historically, correlates with lower stock valuations.